Current:Home > ScamsOnce-Rare Flooding Could Hit NYC Every 5 Years with Climate Change, Study Warns-LoTradeCoin
Once-Rare Flooding Could Hit NYC Every 5 Years with Climate Change, Study Warns
View Date:2024-12-23 21:23:00
Climate change is dramatically increasing the risk of severe flooding from hurricanes in New York City, to the extent that what was a once-in-500-years flood when the city was founded could be expected every five years within a couple of decades.
Throughout the century, of course, the risk of flooding increases as sea levels are expected to continue to rise.
These are the findings of a study published today that modeled how climate change may affect flooding from tropical cyclones in the city. The increased risk, the authors found, was largely due to sea level rise. While storms are expected to grow stronger as the planet warms, models project that they’ll turn farther out to sea, with fewer making direct hits on New York.
However, when sea level rise is added into the picture, “it becomes clear that flood heights will become much worse in the future,” said Andra J. Garner, a postdoctoral researcher at Rutgers University and the lead author of the study.
The paper, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, combines the high-emissions scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change with newer research that assumes more dramatic melting of Antarctic ice sheets to come up with a worst-case scenario for sea level rise. The projection shows waters surrounding New York rising anywhere from about 3 to 8 feet by 2100.
To put that in perspective, New York City’s subway system starts to flood at about 10.5 feet above the average low water mark, as the city saw during Hurricane Sandy five years ago, and Kennedy Airport is only about 14 feet above sea level.
“If we want to plan for future risk, we don’t want to ignore potential worst case scenarios,” Garner said.
In May, the city published guidelines for builders and engineers recommending that they add 16 inches to whatever current code requires for elevating structures that are expected to last until 2040, and 3 feet to anything expected to be around through 2100.
That falls in the lower half of the range projected by the new study. By the end of the century, it says, the flooding from a once-in-500-years storm could be anywhere from about 2 feet to 5.6 feet higher than today.
Garner said that while the models consistently showed storms tracking farther out to sea, it’s possible that changing ocean currents could cause the storms to stay closer to shore. If that were to happen, flooding could be even worse.
veryGood! (85614)
Related
- Ranked voting will decide a pivotal congressional race. How does that work?
- Rory Feek Denies “Cult” Ties and Allegations of Endangering Daughter Indiana
- Kara Welsh Case: Man Arrested After Gymnast Dies During Shooting
- Horoscopes Today, September 1, 2024
- Why Dolly Parton Is a Fan of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Little Love Affair
- Police say 10-year-old boy shot and killed 82-year-old former mayor of Louisiana town
- A man is killed and an officer shot as police chase goes from Illinois to Indiana and back
- Scottie Scheffler has a strong mind that will be put to the test as expectations rise: Analysis
- Arizona Supreme Court declines emergency request to extend ballot ‘curing’ deadline
- Family found dead after upstate New York house fire were not killed by the flames, police say
Ranking
- US Congress hopes to 'pull back the curtain' on UFOs in latest hearing: How to watch
- Murder on Music Row: Phone calls reveal anger, tension on Hughes' last day alive
- Maryland cuts $1.3B in 6-year transportation draft plan
- You Have 24 Hours To Get 50% Off Ashley Graham’s Self-Tanner, Madison LeCroy’s Eye Cream & $7 Ulta Deals
- The Best Corduroy Pants Deals from J.Crew Outlet, Old Navy, Levi’s & More, Starting at $26
- Joshua Jackson Shares Rare Insight Into Bond With His and Jodie Turner-Smith's 4-Year-Old Daughter
- Hyundai unveils 2025 electric SUVs aiming for broader appeal with improved range, charging options
- Suburban Chicago police investigate L train shooting that left 4 sleeping passengers dead
Recommendation
-
Whoopi Goldberg Shares Very Relatable Reason She's Remained on The View
-
Ben Affleck's Cousin Declares She's the New Jenny From the Block Amid Jennifer Lopez Divorce
-
Man extradited back to US in killing of 31-year-old girlfriend, who was found dead at Boston airport
-
Michael Kors Designer Bag Sale: Snag a $378 Crossbody for $55 & Other Under $100 Deals on Fall Styles
-
FBI offers up to $25,000 reward for information about suspect behind Northwest ballot box fires
-
Iga Swiatek and Daniil Medvedev, two former US Open champions, advance to quarterfinals
-
South Carolina Is Considered a Model for ‘Managed Retreat’ From Coastal Areas Threatened by Climate Change
-
Tamra Judge’s Mom Roasts Her Over Her Post Cosmetic Procedure Look on Her Birthday